As the next season of fantasy basketball approaches, managers will be squirming to pick up players they think will bring them a league title. While most managers focus on consolidating as much All-Star talent as possible, the importance of role players taken in the later rounds is often understated. There aren’t many better feelings as a fantasy manager than successfully predicting a breakout season from your mid round pick, and successfully hitting on these picks can be league-winning decisions.
Today, I’ll be going over five players who I believe will outperform their expectations and pre-season fantasy rankings this upcoming season.
Zion Williamson
ESPN Ranking: 35
The media’s villification of Williamson over his injuries has seriously damaged his reputation, making many fans forget that the Pelicans forward is a once-in-a-generation talent. In just his second year, Williamson averaged 27.0 PPG, 7.2 RPG, and 3.7 APG on a ridiculous 64.9 TS%. While 35 is a relatively high ranking for a sleeper pick, Zion only has one barrier to fantasy superstardom: his health. Given the entire 2021-2022 season to recover from injury, Zion will come into his third year as a serious candidate for the scoring title. If Zion can stay relatively healthy this year, it is not unfathomable for him to finish in the fantasy top 10.
Markelle Fultz
ESPN Ranking: 114
Fultz’s career so far has been defined by his strange injury saga with the 76ers combined with being prematurely labeled as a “bust.” However, last year in Orlando, Fultz quietly showed the skillset that made him a number one pick. In just 20 MPG coming off an injury, Fultz averaged 10.8 PPG, 5.5 APG, and 2.7 RPG on an efficient 47.4% from the field. Fultz is all but confirmed to be the starting PG of a young Magic team looking to surprise the league. While I’m not a big fan of per 36 stats, it’s easy to imagine how impressive Fultz’s statsheet would be when given starter minutes. To add further excitement to the Fultz train, this offseason will also be the first fully-healthy offseason of his career. With all those factors considered, I’m expecting a big leap from Fultz this year that will be reflected in his fantasy production.
Michael Porter Jr.
ESPN Ranking: 163
MPJ was one of the most disappointing fantasy players last year, averaging only 9.9 PPG on bad efficiency before undergoing a season-ending surgery after just nine games. Due to this underwhelming play combined with unfortunate injuries, Porter Jr. has fallen off many managers radars and dropped to 163 on ESPN rankings. Regardless of this, fans shouldn’t be so quick to forget how productive MPJ was in his last healthy season. In the 2020-2021 season, MPJ averaged 19.0 PPG and 7.3 RPG on unbelievable shooting splits, posting a record breaking efficiency of 66.3 TS%. The concerns over MPJ’s injury and getting him back to NBA action are valid; however, Porter Jr. seems slated to play on opening night. As long as MPJ plays a good chunk of games, he’ll majorly outperform his current projections.
Devin Vassell
ESPN Ranking: 147
Last year, I hit on my prediction of Dejounte Murray being the biggest breakout due to the departure of DeMar Derozan. This year, San Antonio faces a similar power vacuum with the trade of Murray to Atlanta. I’m expecting Devin Vassell to be one of the biggest benificiaries of the newfound opportunities for the San Antonio players. Vassell is, in my opinion, the most intriguing prospect on the Spurs. While Keldon Johnson is the obvious candidate for a breakout, he is already on most managers’s watchlists. Vassell made massive improvements in every statistical category from his rookie year to his sophomore year, and that type of improvement should only be seen as a preview to what he’ll accomplish in year three.
Alperen Sengun
ESPN Ranking: 174
Fantasy analysts thirsted over Sengun all last season for a reason. From the start, his playstyle has been a dream for fantasy managers. Last year, Sengun’s production was inhibited by the presence of Christian Wood. This year, with Wood in Dallas, the floodgates have opened for Sengun. Without Wood last year, Sengun put up an efficient 13.2 PPG, 8.7 RPG, and 3.5 APG. Those numbers should only balloon with a consistent starting role and a season of NBA experience behind him. Expect Sengun to be rostered in all leagues, all season round.
Floor General 