The NBA Finals: A Complete Overview

The 2023 NBA Finals are set between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat, with Game 1 being set to take place on Thursday, June 1st. In this article, I’ll be giving an overview of this matchup, as well as my prediction/s for the series.

Who Will Win?

First and foremost, I believe the Denver Nuggets will win this series in six games. They have made easy work of their first three opponents (Minnesota, Phoenix, and the LA Lakers), for a total playoff record of 12-3 heading into the Finals. This success has been spearheaded by Nikola Jokic, who has all but solidified his case as the best player in the world. This postseason, Jokic is averaging 29.9 points per game, 13.3 rebounds per game, and dishing out 10.3 assists per game, all while shooting 54% from the field and 47.4% from three. Jokic has once again proven that he is one of the best offensive players to ever touch a basketball, and because of his abilities on that end of the floor, the Nuggets have been the best offense in the league this postseason, posting a 119.7 offensive rating. More importantly, Jokic has also held up on the defensive end. Many critics questioned whether his offensive output could atone for his subpar defense; however, Jokic has looked like a productive defender this postseason. Jokic has ended many narratives surrounding his game so far, and because of him, this Nuggets team has been so successful and is favored to win the championship.

Jokic is far from the only reason this Nuggets team has lit up the Playoffs. Pretty much every member of the roster has stepped up to the challenge of the postseason. Jamal Murray, averaging 27.7 points per game and 6.1 assists per game, has once again shown that he’s the type of player that rises in the playoffs. Murray has been playing like an All-NBA guard, but what may be the scariest part of his game is how well he plays off Jokic. The Jokic-Murray duo is arguably the best in the NBA, and offensively, there has been no answer to them. Outside their two stars, the Nuggets have also been successful. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon have both excelled this year. Porter Jr. is lighting up defenses, shooting 40.8% from three on 7 attempts per game. The mere presence of him on the court adds another threat to heat up at any given moment and also spaces the floor nicely for Jokic and Murray. Aaron Gordon has taken on the task of guarding the opposing team’s best forward, grabbing rebounds, as well as occasionally being an offensive threat. A special mention should also be given to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown, who have played like prototypical role players that every NBA fan would love to have. Through a great roster top-to-down, the Nuggets have achieved a league-high 8.0 net rating.

Second in net rating is the Miami Heat at 4.6. The Heat have proved everybody wrong this postseason, including me. They have accomplished the rare feat of making the NBA Finals as the eighth seed, but I believe their run will come to an end this series. I believe the Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics showed that Miami may be too over-reliant on their role players like Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin overperforming their expectations on offense. If they end up regressing to the mean this series, then Miami will be very limited on offense. However, I still believe that Miami will somehow find a way to win this series. I did not expect them to win their first-round matchup against the Bucks nor their series against the Celtics, but Jimmy Butler and company continuously came through. Despite me thinking that the Nuggets should logically win this series without much struggle, I now know better to bet against this Miami team. I expect them to take two games off Denver and show that they did not make the Finals by sheer luck.

Denver’s X-Factor: Aaron Gordon

It’s common knowledge that Denver’s success largely weighs on the shoulders of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Beyond those two, I believe Aaron Gordon will be a potential game changer this series. The obvious elephant in the room is the defensive matchup against Jimmy Butler. Gordon may just be the perfect matchup for Jimmy on defense, as he has both the size and strength to match Butler’s physical play, as well as the mobility to keep up with Butler on the perimeter. If Gordon can limit Jimmy Butler, then he would be able to single-handedly puncture a hole in Miami’s offensive plan.

Even with his big defensive task, I think Gordon may make his biggest impact on the other side of the ball. Miami’s limited options at the PF position will likely create a mismatch problem that Aaron Gordon can exploit. In their small-ball lineup, Gordon will be able to dominate his matchup in the post and on the glass. If they decide to throw Kevin Love in there for size, Gordon has the ability to attack in space and exploit Love’s slow footspeed.

On both sides of the ball, Aaron Gordon will likely end up being the unsung hero of this series.

Miami’s X-Factor: Bam Adebayo

Adebayo possess a unique skillset that may be as good of an answer as one can get to Nikola Jokic.

On defense, it’s well-known that Bam is one of the best in the NBA. He is arguably the most versatile defender in the league, which will be vital this series. His foot speed and mobility allows him to switch on to any position on the floor, which will be crucial when defending Jokic’s pick-and-rolls and dribble handoffs. Jokic will be operating from both the perimeter and in the post, and luckily for Miami, Bam is well-equipped to sustain these types of attacks. Unfortunately, I’m not expecting Bam to be able to truly slow Jokic down despite his defensive brilliance, but I think he’ll be able to at least hold his own on defense.

On offense, Bam is a unique type of center. His offensive bag is questionable, but he absolutely has the ability to play on the perimeter and bring Jokic out of the paint. Jokic has been good defensively these Playoffs, but Bam may be able to give him some trouble by drawing him out and giving Miami’s perimeter players the ability to attack Jokic in space. Miami may take some inspiration from Denver and have Bam initiate offense from the perimeter in order to get Jokic into these uncomfortable defensive situations. He can also occasionally heat up and start creating his own shots off-the-dribble, which would give Jokic further problems.

Conclusion

Virtually nobody predicted this years Finals matchup to be Denver vs. Miami, but with the level of basketball these teams are playing, nobody should be complaining. This series will treat us to watching this year’s top two Playoff performs go head-to-head (Jokic and Butler), as well as a basketball chess match between two brilliant head coaches (Malone and Spoelstra).